Can Nebius Group Really 10X by 2030? The Math Says Yes

Artificial intelligence is creating a new industrial buildout unlike anything investors have seen in decades. Hyperscalers are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers, chips, and power infrastructure because AI workloads require an entirely new computing backbone. The biggest question is shifting from whether AI demand exists to which companies will capture the economic value created by that demand.

That opportunity has pushed investors to search beyond the established hyperscalers for the next generation of AI infrastructure winners. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) could be the one to achieve it.

Respected independent research firm Wolfe Research believes Nebius could generate $34 billion in revenue and $21 billion in EBITDA by 2030. That sounds ambitious, but it is not too far off from Nebius’s own forecasts, as it has the kind of contracted demand that most early-stage infrastructure companies can only hope to secure.

The company’s own long-range model projects:

That means Nebius expects revenue to compound at roughly 80% annually from FY26 through FY30 before slowing to a more mature growth rate.

Mature cloud businesses at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) trade at roughly 15 to 20 times EBITDA once their cloud operations become established. If Nebius reaches Wolfe Research’s $21 billion EBITDA forecast and receives even the lower end of that multiple range, the math looks like this:

That estimate does not include any growth beyond 2030 or a scarcity premium for owning one of the few independent AI infrastructure platforms operating at global scale. If Nebius continues expanding after 2030 and pushes revenue toward $60 billion to $70 billion, a trillion-dollar valuation starts looking plausible.

The key to Nebius reaching those targets is capacity. Its Vineland, NJ, data center is designed as a 2.6 million-square-foot AI factory developed with DataOne using Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) fuel cells for off-grid power. It is expected to become fully operational in 2027 and Nebius already has demand waiting.

The company has signed $46 billion in contracts with Microsoft and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), including its largest agreement: a $27 billion Meta deal beginning in early 2027. The structure gives Nebius flexibility: If Meta needs the capacity, Nebius fills it; if another customer offers higher returns, the company can redirect that capacity toward the open GPU market.

That contracted backlog changes the investment story. Instead of building data centers and hoping customers arrive, Nebius is building infrastructure around already committed demand.